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Rick -> Rick's Election Analyses -> June 7, 2022

Tuesday, 2022-06-07 statewide direct primary election

Notes by Rick Moen

(Last updated 2022-07-31)

This election rundown will cover offices and issues votable at our precinct 3402 in West Menlo Park, California. Unless you live close by, your ballot will differ to some degree.

As always, definitive outcomes are not possible for several weeks, partly because some categories of ballots aren't counted until after Election Day (vote-by-mail/absentee including overseas and military / RAVbM, provisional, conditional-voter-registration provisional, and damaged).

Also as always, this page includes separate "RM partisan analysis" sections for each issue/candidate, just in case you're curious what I personally think. No, I'm not lobbying to persuade, in part because that doesn't work.



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How to Check / Fix / Create Your Voter Registration

California's registration deadline is 15 calendar days before each election; in this case, Monday, May 23, 2022. Some counties permit checking and correcting registration online, and California also has a statewide voter registration Web site. I would recommend checking your county information first. If you see signs of trouble or have doubts or find no information, contact your county registrar of voters immediately. Or, just visit that office in person, bringing state photo ID or passport.

After official registration deadline and through Election Day, you can still do new registration (or change existing registration personal details or address) "conditionally" aka Same Day Voter Registration and then vote, doing both at any Early Voting Location. (This is also how to vote if you turn age 18 after official registration deadline but before Election Day.) If your name isn't on the voter list for your precinct, you can still vote a "provisional ballot", which means your ballot will be counted after eligibility gets checked.



Candidate Information

I've had a small epiphany: We have better ways of getting information than the (state) Official Voter Information Guide and (county) County Sample Ballot & Official Voter Information Pamphlet.

As 2016 U.S. Senate candidate Jason Hanania pointed out, the state charges candidates $25 per word to include a Candidate Statement in the statewide Guide — thus over $6,000 for a full-paragraph statement, plus a $3,480 Filing Fee, thus difficulty staying under the Federal Elections Commission cap of $5,000 in campaign expenditures, exceeding which brings many expensive other requirements and a host of other ills.

All of that is unnecessary: We have the Web, and nobody need pay by the word. Therefore, for each candidate, I have hyperlinked the candidate Web site or best other Web resource. The Web can give you much deeper and better information than the Official Voter Information Pamphlet and County Pamphlet. Use it.



Federal Offices

USA Senator

Full Term

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

Certified write-in candidates for this office:

This is a very unusual situation, resulting from Gov. Newsom in Dec. 2020 having appointed Alex Padilla to (begin to) serve the remainder of Kamala Harris's Senate term. Per California law, voters must now vote to determine whether Padilla or someone else will complete the very short remainder of Harris's term (from the Nov. 8th general election to Jan. 3, 2023), and separately for the regular six-year Senate term that follows. Candidates for the remainder (to Jan. 3, 2023) term will be covered further down. Those for the subsequent full (2023 to 2029) term are listed immediately below.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: This being a top-two primary with Alex Padilla to get the top slot, normally the key question is who will get the other one. However, in this case, only three candidates are even remotely competitive. #1 is Alex Padilla, who has a commanding lead over candidate #2, attorney Mark P. Meuser. Meuser, the standard-bearer for the Republicans, has spent the past four years suing Gov. Newsom over just about everything. He's a major Trump supporter who doubts the 2020 election's validity, supports overturning Roe v. Wade, and is a climate change denier. Bringing up the rear is #3, tech. billionaire Dan O'Dowd, who bought his way onto the ballot, and mostly spends time bashing Tesla over dangers from its self-driving cars, promoting cybersecurity without meaningfully engaging on normal campaign issues.

(Post-election note: I failed to cover State Senator James P. Bradley. Judging by a January 2022 interview, he seems like the sort of whack-a-doodle who sees "socialists" and "Marxists" under every bed, and rants about non-existent election irregularities, how he's being oppressed by Facebook and Twitter, Critical Race Theory, etc., etc. at the drop of a hat.

Reviewing my notes about the June 2018 Senate race, I find that I've seen Mr. Bradley before, and said: "Polls suggest that Republican unknown James Bradley, a crank, xenophobic, anti-women's-rights, far-right candidate, has support close to [that of candidate Kevin de León]". Plus ça change, eh?

As a further note about Meuser, his incessant suing, unsuccessfully attempting to challenge just about every COVID-19 pandemic emergency measure, including stay-at-home orders, temporary restrictions on in-person religious services, business closings, beach closings, face-covering orders, the governor's order to mail out vote-by-mail ballots to all voters during the pandemic emergency, etc., etc., were in conjunction with Dhillon Law Group and the so-called Center for American Liberty. Meuser also states that he would sue to attempt to block any attempt to mandate COVID vaccination for public school students, and claims that the vaccines aren't even vaccines at all. That is what Meuser means when he says "fighting for people's Constitutional rights".)

Normally, I would select a least-bad alternative candidate I would like to run against Padilla in November, but the sheer awfulness of the main competition impells me to vote to further Padilla's margin of victory. I'm voting for Padilla.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



USA Senator

Partial Term

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

Certified write-in candidates for this office:

This is a very unusual situation, resulting from Gov. Newsom in Dec. 2020 having appointed Alex Padilla to (begin to) serve the remainder of Kamala Harris's Senate term. Per California law, voters must now vote to determine whether Padilla or someone else will complete the very short remainder of Harris's term (from the Nov. 8th general election to Jan. 3, 2023), and separately for the regular six-year Senate term that follows. Candidates for the remainer term (to Jan. 3, 2023) are listed below. Those for the subsequent full (2023 to 2029) term were already covered, above.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: This being a top-two primary with Alex Padilla to get the top slot, normally the key question is who will get the other one. However, in this case, only three candidates are even remotely competitive. #1 is Alex Padilla, who has a commanding lead over candidate #2, attorney Mark P. Meuser. Meuser, the standard-bearer for the Republicans, has spent the past four years suing Gov. Newsom over just about everything. He's a major Trump supporter who doubts the 2020 election's validity, supports overturning Roe v. Wade, and is a climate change denier. Bringing up the rear is #3, tech. billionaire Dan O'Dowd, who bought his way onto the ballot, and mostly spends time bashing Tesla, promoting cybersecurity without meaningfully engaging on normal campaign issues.

(Post-election note: I failed to cover State Senator James P. Bradley. Judging by a January 2022 interview, he seems like the sort of whack-a-doodle who sees "socialists" and "Marxists" under every bed, and rants about non-existent election irregularities, how he's being oppressed by Facebook and Twitter, Critical Race Theory, etc., etc. at the drop of a hat.

Reviewing my notes about the June 2018 Senate race, I find that I've seen Mr. Bradley before, and said: "Polls suggest that Republican unknown James Bradley, a crank, xenophobic, anti-women's-rights, far-right candidate, has support close to [that of candidate Kevin de León]". Plus ça change, eh?

As a further note about Meuser, his incessant suing, unsuccessfully attempting to challenge just about every COVID-19 pandemic emergency measure, including stay-at-home orders, temporary restrictions on in-person religious services, business closings, beach closings, face-covering orders, the governor's order to mail out vote-by-mail ballots to all voters during the pandemic emergency, etc., etc., were in conjunction with Dhillon Law Group and the so-called Center for American Liberty. Meuser also states that he would sue to attempt to block any attempt to mandate COVID vaccination for public school students, and claims that the vaccines aren't even vaccines at all. That is what Meuser means when he says "fighting for people's Constitutional rights".)

Normally, I would select a least-bad alternative candidate I would like to run against Padilla in November, but the sheer awfulness of the main competition impells me to vote to further Padilla's margin of victory. I'm voting for Padilla.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



U.S. 16th Congressional District

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

Certified write-in candidates for this office:

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: For all the reasons I've voted for her before, I'm voting for Eshoo.

If tempted to vote for Richard B. Fox, know that he's an anti-choice physician. If tempted to vote for Rishi Kumar, see links above (and my prior write-ups) for some incidents in which he behaved very badly indeed. As to newcomer Ajwang Rading, I would like to like him, and hope he will stay in politics, but I will mention an incident: One of his campaign signs showed up in my front yard, blocking the entrance to my vegetable garden. I removed it and wrote the campaign saying they could pick it up prior to the next garbage collection day. Candidate Rading wrote back saying he'd be by that evening to do that, and blamed "high school students". He did not show up. Instead, one of his staffers did four days later (after garbage collection), and claimed the campaign had used my vegetable garden entrance because they'd determined it was owned by "the city".

My residential lot has been in my family's ownership since it was developed in 1956, there is no "city" in my area, and even if the land were city-owned, putting a campaign sign there (without permission) would have been equally wrongful. Accordingly, Mr. Rading has given a poor initial impression.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



Statewide Offices

State Assembly Member, 23rd District

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office

This election is a different proposition from the ones where Berman has won in the past, because decennial redistricting has added some rural, conservative areas to the redrawn 23rd District.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: Berman's main issues in office have been education, climate change, and voters’ rights. In the recent past, there has been a scandal involving a sexual harrassment issue involving one of his staffers, in which Berman didn't look very good. Meanwhile, Tim Dec is running on fiscal conservatism, environmental, issues and easing regulations, and has a background in tech. at Apple. He seems an admirably good fellow, on balance.

On balance, I'm voting for Berman as a known quantity, despite the harassment scandal.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



Governor

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

Certified write-in candidates for this office:

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: For reference and comparison, I summarized Newsom's record in office, to date, during Sept. 2021's recall election campaign.

Polls show that Newsom has a commanding lead as before with support of 50% of likely voters. The only credible competitor, Republican state Senator Brian Dahle, has 10%, and pushes the usual far-right crazy talk (climate-change denier, opposed to abortion rights, opposed to government vaccine mandates, voter reforms caused crime waves). The large field of also-rans include ten who drew tiny vote totals in the 2021 recall effort (Trimino, Ventresca, Le Roux, Mercuri, Hanink, Newman, Perez-Serrato, Heather Collins, Zacky, Lozano).

I'm going to keep it simple and avoid fringe and non-credible candidates. I'm voting for Newsom.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



Lt. Governor

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

Certified write-in candidates for this office:

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: I'm going to keep it simple; I'm voting for Kounalakis.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



Secretary of State

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

Certified write-in candidates for this office:

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: I'm going to keep it simple; I'm voting for Weber.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



Controller

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

Incumbent Betty Yee is termed-out.

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: The game theory on this one is interesting. There's an excellent chance that Lanhee Chen, as the sole Republican, will win one of the two slots, and one of the four Democrats the other. Of the four, Yiu, local politico and tech. executive in San Gabriel Valley, has poured about $6M into her campaign, much more than the rest. Malia Cohen is the party insiders' progressive candidate. Centrist State Sen. Steve Glazer promotes himself as an independent-minded watchdog. And Ron Galperin is Controller for L.A., the only candidate to have that obviously relevant title.

All of the preceding four are reasonable choices. I'm voting for Galperin.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



Treasurer

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: Fiona Ma has developed some baggage in her first term and has been to that degree disappointing, especially after being so good at the Board of Equalization. But her competitors just aren't very impressive. I'm voting for Ma.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



Attorney General

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: I'll keep it simple. I'm voting for Bonta.

(Post-election comment: Candidate Anne Marie Schubert is also immensely worthy of respect, and her public service should be applauded.)

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



Insurance Commissioner

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: I've been dissatisfied with Richard Lara (and would have vastly preferred his earlier competitor, Steve Poizner, whom I actually voted for). Challenger Marc Levine has made some telling criticisms and is also a credible choice. I'm convinced by Mr. Levine. I'm voting for Levine.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



Member, State Board of Equalization, 2nd District

(voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election)
(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: Closely paraphrasing the SF Chronicle's summary: Alioto-Pier is a San Francisco politician who's considered a business-friendly moderate. Lieber is deemed a progressive, and qualified. Verbica is an investment banker and certified financial planner. I'm voting for Lieber.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



Superintendent of Public Instruction

(nonpartisan voter-nominated office - top two vote-winners will advance to 2022-11-08 general election, unless one candidate reaches a 50% + 1 or more vote share)
(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: Incumbent Thurmond is the dominant candidate. Challengers Lance Christensen and George Yang show favoritism towards charter schools (highly inappropriate and problematic in this office). On balance, Thurmond has his problems, but I'm voting for Thurmond.

Outcome (July 15, 2022 official results).



County Offices

San Mateo County Board of Supervisors

3rd District (coastside, Redwood Shores, SC, West Menlo)

(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: Once again, Chang Kiraly is by a country mile the best candidate: Early on, she highlighted and defined the race's main issue, when she spoke out strongly against the Board of Supervisors' plan to enact a new parcel tax at this uncertain time. In response to that, Booker agreed, Mueller waffled, and Parmer-Lohan strongly supported the tax proposal. Chang Kiraly was and is right — and notably has 100% of the endorsements from local newspaper editorial boards. Mr. Booker is a promising newcomer, and I hope to see him again, but I'm voting for Chang Kiraly.

Outcome (July 7, 2022 official results):.

Runoff follows whenever a local primary election fails to produce majority margin. (California's "top two" election scheme isn't applied to county/local offices.)



Assessor-Recorder-County Clerk

(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: As I see nothing wrong with him, I'm voting for Church.

Outcome (July 7, 2022 official results):.



Controller

(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: As I see nothing wrong with him, I'm voting for Raigoza, again.

Outcome (July 7, 2022 official results):.



Coroner

(vote for one)

Certified write-in candidates filed for this office:

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: As I see nothing wrong with him, I'm voting for Foucrault, again.

Outcome (July 7, 2022 official results):.



Sheriff

(vote for one)

Certified write-in candidates filed for this office:

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: I've actually talked to a number of local politicians and sheriff's department deputies about this race, and, although Corpus is a fine officer and may in the future be a fine sheriff, I've found on balance that Bolanos has done an excellent job and would be happy to return him to office. I'm voting for Bolanos.

Outcome (July 7, 2022 official results):.

July 31, 2022 post-election note: A story about highly questionable official activity by Sheriff Bolanos has broken. I hope it is soon investigated by state Attorney General Rob Bonta.



Superintendent of Schools

(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

RM partisan analysis: As I see nothing wrong with her, I'm voting for Magee, again.

Outcome (July 7, 2022 official results):.



Treasurer - Tax Collector

(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

RM partisan analysis: As I see nothing wrong with her, I'm voting for Arnott, again.

Outcome (July 7, 2022 official results):.



District Attorney

(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

RM partisan analysis: As I see nothing wrong with him, I'm voting for Wagstaffe, again.

Outcome (July 7, 2022 official results):.



Judge of the Superior Court - Office No. 4

(vote for one)

No certified write-in candidate filed for this office.

Coverage:

RM partisan analysis: As I see nothing wrong with her, I'm voting for Cho.

Outcome (July 7, 2022 official results):.



Additional Resources

Lifehacker article: "How to Quickly Research All Your Local Elections"

Fair Political Practices Commission has contributor records that help follow the money trail.

Followers of these pages will note that I always heed Pete Stahl's analyses (of statewide propositions), League of Women Voters of CA (a highly respected non-partisan voter education organization), Ballotpedia (a project of nonprofit Lucy Burns Institute of Wisconsin), CalMatters (an independent journalism venture run as a nonprofit out of Sac'to), Voter's Edge (whose California pages are a joint project of League of Women Voters of California Education Fund and Berkeley nonprofit MapLight that studies and tracks the influence of money on politics in the United States), Vote Smart (a non-profit, non-partisan research organization), Politifact (a fact-checking site run by non-profit journalism school Poynter Institute), ProPublica (an NYC journalism nonprofit project), and the greater or lesser wisdom of hard-working newspaper staffs.

Peter Xu's SFEndorsements site collects endorsements and voter guides during each election season for all San Francisco local, California state, and national candidates and measures.

Left Coast Right Watch is of course partisan, but eagle-eyed about some candidates' involvement with political extremism.

Supreme Court of California Blog (SCOCAblog) has astute coverage of legal issues about voting and related matters.

I also strongly recommend skim-reading Ballotpedia's Laws governings the initiative process in California page and making sure one understands it, prior to evaluating statewide propositions. Parts of it are highly relevant to proposition tactics (e.g., competing propositions on the same topic, legislative alteration) and other vital concerns.

True California-politics professionals subscribe to California Target Book, a comprehensive non-partisan effort to study state districts and political races. (I am not that obsessive.)

1 All write-in aka "independent" candidates, like other candidates, must be qualified by California's Secretary of State for state-level and Congressional offices, or by county election offices for local offices. All polling places and Voting Centers are required to have a list of qualified write-in candidates.